The last decade and a half of German politics have been the story of one person. Angela Merkel, leader of the CDU/CSU Union, has been as dominant as any figure can be in a PR system. A very narrow victory in 2005 has been followed by comfortable wins in 2009, 2013 (where she came just 5 seats short of a majority!), and 2017. But after 16 years in office she is handing over before new elections on 26 September, and the transition is not going smoothly.

Her replacement, after a fierce internal contest, is Armin Laschet. The Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia, kinda like the Prime Minister of a US State, was widely seen as the Merkel continuity candidate and promised to stay the course she set out. Unfortunately for the Union, he’s no Angela Merkel.

Laschet is not a naturally charismatic man. To make matters worse, he lacks a certain political instinct. For example: When visiting a town after floods kill 180 people, and during a speech by the German President, perhaps don’t crack jokes and laugh heartily with aides in the background. Just a thought.

As the campaign has gotten underway, the Union’s previously insurmountable lead has started to disintegrate. From easily double-digit leads a few months ago the favourites have been rocked first by a renewed Green surge (who, while not the focus of this article, do look very likely to get their best ever result assuming they beat 10.7%) and now a surge of the social democrat SPD who get closer every day.

The SPD, led by Olaf Scholz (who is also a member of the government, thanks to PR and coalitions), were 10-15% behind as recently as late June but are now breathing down the neck of the Union. One pollster even has them tied, and momentum is clearly with them. Polls also show Scholz as much preferred to Laschet as a potential Chancellor.

In truth, Laschet was always inheriting an impossible challenge. Whoever followed Merkel was going to be compared to a nostalgic memory of her leadership and come up short. Nonetheless, we should not sugar coat how awful Laschet’s position is. The Union has never polled below 31% in a general election. Current polling has them in the low 20s.

From a betting perspective, the SPD’s price for most seats has collapsed from 50/1 as recently as 12 August to odds varying from 8/1 (Unibet) to 2/1 (Ladbrokes) with various bookies offering odds in between. Given the Union was dominant for so long, William Hill and Smarkets also offer a ‘Winner w/o Union’ market, where the SPD at 2/5 and 1/2 respectively is probably value given the bet wins unless they come behind the Greens (or, somehow, a 4^th/5^th party).

With such a volatile situation, nothing is certain. But if Merkel has found her own Theresa May as a replacement as it appears then the Union really do seem at risk of slipping into second place. At 4/1 or longer I’d bet on an SPD victory, and the backup bet on the winner w/o the Union is probably still value at current odds.

Pip Moss posts on Political Betting as Quincel. He has bets on the SPD to win most seats at average odds of 11/2 and the SPD winning w/o the Union at 4/5. His articles will return to their usual Saturday schedule on 4 September. You can follow him on Twitter at @PipsFunFacts