Axing the triple lock could be another #dementia tax debacle
Preventing the 8.8% pension rise would require legislation
The former pensions minister during the Coalition government, Steve Webb, has made an acute observation about the government’s state pension triple lock dilemma – the law requires that the triple lock is applied. He noted in the I
“People are still missing the fact that the law of the land requires earnings indexation when it comes to the State pension uplift..“Forget the triple lock, forget the manifesto pledge. There is a law that says you have to increase the State pension in line with earnings. If Government decides not to honour the triple lock and link the rise to inflation or something else it will have to pass a law and amendment.”
Sure the Tories have a majority but you can bet that Tory MPs with smallish majorities would be mighty cautious to vote for a measure that deprived their elderly constituents of what is currently a legal entitlement.
One aspect of it has largely been ignored – the introduction of this commitment was very much part of the case in the 2010-2015 parliament to raise the age at which people started to receive state pensions which had a huge impact in cutting government spending,
When then-Chancellor Osborne moved the increased pension age he predicated his comments by making a big play of the triple lock. Indeed looking back it is hard to see how upping the age in the manner that Osborne did could have been politically possible without the triple lock commitment.
Retaining the triple lock was a key part of Conservative policy at the last three general elections and to many it will be seen as an entitlement.
Of course, ministers would argue there’s a case at the moment to “suspend” its operation but how will this stand in two or more years surely when highlighted by Tory opponents in a general election campaign as a big example of why you can’t trust Tory promises?
It goes almost goes without saying that people of pensionable age are much more likely to vote Tory than any other age segment. TMay saw at GE2017 what can happen when the oldie turnout level was lower than normal in comparison to younger groups. This, of course, followed what was dubbed the #DemenitaTax debacle.