This might not age well, but I think ending the triple lock is far more likely to create a backlash than the rise in national insurance. https://t.co/DKvtA1Vy6z

— Chris Curtis (@chriscurtis94) September 4, 2021

Even if you work people through the argument for why it might suspend it for this year (more explanation than the average person is likely to hear) you still only end up with 34% thinking it shouldn't go ahead this year Vs 37% who think it should continue as normal. pic.twitter.com/O2sETbgCfk

— Chris Curtis (@chriscurtis94) September 4, 2021

If you are going to use the "why should X get more money when you aren't" argument, then X needs to be significantly less popular than Grandma.

— Chris Curtis (@chriscurtis94) September 4, 2021

This twitter thread from Opinium’s Chris Curtis makes sense to me and if there is a backlash from Rishi Sunak’s proposals then there’s a couple of betting implications.

First of all I suspect Sunak will become very unpopular amongst Conservative MPs and the Conservative Party core vote of pensioners so if you’re not laying Sunak then you should be especially if you followed the PB tip of 250/1 to succeed Boris Johnson.

Secondly those who have bet on Labour having a poll lead in 2021 will be feeling optimistic about their bets being winners. In the last month we’ve had three polls with the lead down to 3% so it doesn’t need much movement for a Labour lead to materialise. William Hill and Smarkets are offering 10/11 on a Labour poll lead in 2021 and a near 90% return seems very attractive to me (especially when you factor in a rogue poll/sample issue.)

I’m expecting an Opinium poll tonight, the last one had the lead down to 3% but tonight’s poll would have been carried out before these proposals were being trailed to the media, I’d expect if the triple lock is being suspended to filter through in the polls in the middle/latter part of September.

TSE