As it stands both the next general election and the next London mayoral election are scheduled for May 2024 but I suspect the government will not allow that to happen and move to the London mayoral election a month later or so because there’s also the London Assembly elections as well. It might be similar to the decision not to hold devolved government elections on the same day as a UK wide general election.
I wonder if we have a 1992 local elections scenario where the locals took place a month after the general election where non Conservatives were demoralised by the general election result which led to a Conservative rout in the locals. As things stand the Conservatives are on course to win the next general election which could lead to that demoralisation in their opponents who can’t be bothered to go vote.
So who to back? I’m going to advise backing Rory Stewart and Shaun Bailey at 16/1 and 50/1 respectively. Bailey surprised me in the 2021 election when he got within 4.7% of Sadiq Khan in the first round as I thought Bailey was so useless he made Gavin Williamson look competent. Bailey once suggested the homeless should save for a mortgage.
With the government changing the mayoral voting system a one round first past the post election it has the ability to negate tactical voting against the Conservatives on the second round.
As for Rory Stewart he had planned to run in the last election but the pandemic put the kibosh on that. It is a shame he is no longer in front line politics. Just imagine if we had Rory Stewart as Foreign Secretary instead of Dominic Raab?
Neither Smarkets nor Betfair have markets up on this election but when they do I am tempted to break the habit of a lifetime and go into debt to fund my gambling because I am willing to do that to raise funds to lay Brian Rose in this market, currently 500/1 with Ladbrokes, heck I’m tempted to sell my family into indentured servitude to raise funds for this.