As we all know the pattern of polling since Johnson’s tax rise statement last Monday have been negative for the Tories. The latest from the normally Tory-friendly Redfield has the blue team lead down from 9% to 4% although its PM approval rating has moved just from a net minus 4% to just minus 2% which is very different from the Opinium minus 17% for essentially what is the same question.
The Betfair general election majority market is based on a party securing 326 seats or more which on a 4% CON lead appears challenging for the Tories. At GE2019 the Tory vote lead was 11.8% so this represents a CON to LAB swing of just under 4%
The figure in this betting market which I think is totally out is the 13% on a LAB majority. Without the huge wins that Labour used to secure in Scotland (41 of the 59 seats there at GE2010) this looks an almost impossible task.