There’s been a change in the next PM betting with Starmer back as favourite though only rated a 21% chance.
What this market really shows, I’d suggest, is the growing certainty that Johnson will stay the course and lead the Tories into the next election. Sunak only gets favoured here when his boss appears in trouble – which is not happening at the moment.
This is a market where it could be years, even a decade, before you could see your winnings. Everything is dependent on Johnson not being in the job and the chances of a change before the next election are declining all the time.
In politics, though, anything can happen and the most dangerous assumption you can make is that the status quo will prevail.
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