Could Raab be in trouble at Esher and Walton?
Having lived and brought up my family in the neighbouring constituency of Twickenham Dominic Raab’s seat of Esher and Walton is one I know well and where the LDs have hopes of making a gain whenever the general election happens.
At GE2019, as the Wikipedia panel above shows, they came close last time and Raab would have lost if Labour voters had backed the LD.
There are four factors that are central when looking at LD prospects in a particular seat:
- Was the party in second place last time? Clearly here they were and by some margin.
- Did it vote Remain at the Referendum? Esher was 58.3% Remain
- Will the party be able to flood the seat with activists in the months before and during the campaign? It is very close to the LD Westminster seats of Twickenham, Kingson and Richmond Park
- Does the electorate comprise have a high percentage of graduates? At 44%+ this is higher than even Chesham and Amersham.
The boundary changes are said to help the Tories but only by a bit and at the margin. The other advantages the LDs will have make this a close contest.
This is from Wikipedia
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