Can Starmer get a conference boost?

Can Starmer get a conference boost?


Betting on the end month LAB poll average

One of the innovative betting markets that Smarkets has up is in the chart above. What will LAB’s polling average be at the end of the month? These are the market rules:

This market relates to the Labour Party’s UK parliament polling average on 30 September 2021, according to Politico’s UK poll of polls . A readout of the Labour Party’s most recent polling average (using the ‘Kalman Smooth’ display, to the nearest whole percentage point) will be taken from Politico at 12pm UK time on 30 September 2021 to settle this market.

At the moment the poll of polls is on a 35% share though it has been edging upwards and there are just two weeks to go.

The market will be halted at 12pm UK time on 20 September 2021, 10 days before the market is settled.

While the trend has been going up the only pollster with LAB at 36%+ is the latest Opinium with its 38%. Even the YouGov LAB lead poll had the party on only 35%. But we do have the LAB conference coming up and the likely extra media attention could give Starmer’s party a boost – which is actually what you are betting on.

Although 34-46%, the current favourite, looks the best bet at the moment if the 37-39% odds eased I might have a flutter.

Well done to Smarkets for creating something that is innovative.

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