One defection would be the most surprising defection since Quentin Davies left the Conservative Party and joined Gordon Brown’s Labour Party, three at the same time would be extraordinary. The last time a sitting MP defected from Labour to the Conservative Party was before I was born when Reg Prentice defected in 1977.
In my experience Labour Party members and MPs are most unlikely to defect to the Tory scum, that there’s three of them pondering defecting at the same time makes me raise my eyebrows so much they currently reside in Iceland, there’s more chance of someone defecting from the DUP to Sinn Féin.
Defections usually aren’t normally leaked until the defection happens, with the exception of the The Independent Group and look how turned that out? As an attendee of the 2014 Conservative Party conference we were all on the lookout for potential defectors because of Mark Reckless defecting on the eve of conference and there was rampant speculation, aided and abetted by Nigel Farage, that there would be more. It was a fraught time with many Conservatives fearing a nightmare scenario of someone defecting during David Cameron’s speech but there was no defection. Defections happen in the background, not leaked and trailed beforehand.
As Mike Smithson has consistently pointed out it wasn’t Brexit that cost Labour the 2019 general election but Corbyn’s leadership so it might be Tory enablers that call themselves Corbynites who might defect, yes I’m looking at the likes of Richard Burgon. Or perhaps it might be Diane Abbott who could be very angry at Starmer’s plans to tax and destroy private schools, as she can attest private schools produce the best students and people.
Smarkets have a market on any Labour MP defecting to the Conservative Party before the end of the year, I have to say I’m not tempted to back yes at 8, I’ll be backing No. If you think one or three MPs are going to defect from Labour to the Conservatives there may well be better proxy markets out there on something like the next Labour leader market, such as Wes Streeting at 16.5 to be Starmer’s successor.