Undoubtedly the Conservatives are doing very well at the stage to be maintaining the poll lead over Labour and the question must arise as to whether the prime minister will decide to go for it early before things like the tax rises due for next spring come into effect?
No doubt we are going to see increasing media speculation over this but I am not convinced – mind you I wasn’t convinced in April 2017 when TMay surprised us all by going early. She took the gamble when the Tory lead was in the high teens and we all know what happened at GE2017.
A big problem for the government about an election is that the opposition gets much better treatment and attention from the media and there’s always the chance of a government own goal like the TMay’s “Dementia Tax”.
As can be seen in the chart above the current betting on 2022 has it at just a 7% chance which possibly could be attractive but I am keeping out.