The odds on whether Trump will run in 2024 have now settled down as can be seen punters rate his chances at more than 71%. This is a good bet because of the way the market is defined:
This market relates to whether Donald J. Trump will run for President of the United States in the 2024 presidential election. This market will be settled for yes if Donald J. Trump files a ‘Statement of Candidacy’ with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States presidential election before 31 August 2024. If Trump withdraws his Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission after he has filed it, this will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
My reading of this is that he doesn’t have to run for it to be a winner – simply that he has taken the bureaucratic step of registering. His great strength in the party at the moment is that he might be going for it again and other hopefuls in the party have to navigate around that.
What is good about betting on this is that there will be an early payout if he does decide to take the plunge. Other WH2024 wagers generally involve a wait till Summer 2024 for markets to be settled. Conversely betting that he won’t run will require a wait till September of that year before settlement.