Even though it is more than three years away betting on the next White House race remains active and as can be seen the loser who refused to admit defeat. Trump, is clear favourite and he continues to totally dominate Republican politics. Much of that power would be diluted if he ruled out a run.
Biden who will be 79 next month remains politically active but it is hard seeing someone in their early 80s, as he would be, having the energy and drive to pursue a new campaign. My guess is that he’ll let it be known after the November 2022 midterms that he plans to stand down.
The big challenge for any Trump campaign is the needs to get independent voters on side in key swing states and I am far from convinced that he would win if he stands. The events of January 6th continue to dominate US politics and Trump’s tole could prove a negative.
My only WH2024 bets at 67/1 is on Pete Buttigieg.