It’s the economy stupid?
Many people, myself included, think based on the current polling and historical precedents, the government are on course to win a majority at the the next general election. Yet there’s a nagging feeling that there could be a black swan or just a regular swan that might upend those assumptions about the next general election.
Looking at those findings from YouGov atop this thread, there’s potential for a cost of living crisis damaging the government. It is possible that any pay increases get wiped out by inflation, higher interest rates, and rather large price increases in things like energy bills and fuel. Something the public are expecting to happen.
YouGov also found that a lot more people expect the budget to leave them and the country worse off than better off (although the winner was no difference).
My view is that the Conservatives need to win a majority at the next election, because they won’t have any parliamentary allies willing to prop them up if they fall short of a majority. Based on the above polling this could imperil a Conservative majority. If Boris Johnson goes down the Gordon Brown route and says a cost of living crisis started somewhere in the world then I expect that won’t be a successful strategy.