The last successful Tory by-election defence was in 2016
December’s battles should surely change that
Here’s a political trivia question that even the most ardent PBer would struggle to answer – when and where was the last successful Tory Westminster by-election defence?
The answer is hard because there have been so few such contests. The answer is Sleaford and North Hykeham in December 2016 when TMay was PM. Since then the Tories gained Copeland from LAB in February 2017, and lost Brecon & Radnorshire to the LDs a week after Johnson became PM in August 2019. This was followed by the failure in June this year to beat off a huge challenge from the LDs in Chesham & Amersham.
Hartlepool was gained from LAB in May but Johnson has not yet led his party to a successful defence. That should surely change in December when we have Old Bexley & Sidcup followed a fortnight later by North Shropshire.
On Smarkets is it now a 78% chance that both will be CON holds.
In North Shropshire the LDs were all ready to launch a recall petition campaign which would have happened if Owen Paterson had been suspended. As a result of the vacancy they’ve been able to be pretty fast off the mark with their campaign. One leaflet that is going out has the headline – “Conservative Sleaze – Don’t let them get away with it”.