A Johnson exit in 2022 moving up in the betting
The recent record lows in Johnson’s leadership ratings and LAB taking the lead have sparked off a flurry of activity in several betting markets including the year in which Johnson will go.
Although it is down a bit “2024 or later” is still the favourite but it is no longer odds-on and as can be seen 2022 is moving upwards.
I’m sure that most PBers are familiar with the Tory party leadership rules which make ousting a leader a lot easier than with Labour.
Basically, it requires 15% or more of the party’s MPs to send letter to the Chair of the 1922 Committee calling for a confidence vote. Once that total is reached he or she then sets up the secret confidence ballot which normally happens pretty quickly.
A key feature of the process is if a ballot is held and the leader survives then there can be no other confidence moves for a year. If the confidence vote goes the other way then the party moves into a leadership election.
There is little doubt that Johnson has been damaged the question is how much. Whatever he is not helped by the latest polls.