Could the Tory 41% Bexley majority really be in danger?

Could the Tory 41% Bexley majority really be in danger?

One of the things about by-election betting is that unless you have a fair idea of what is happening on the ground then it is hard to come to any conclusions.

What we do you know about this contest is that it is coming after a very difficult period for the Conservatives and for Johnson. The national polling position of the Tories has slipped a few steps since the seat became vacant in the second week of October. Then CON leads of 5%-10% were being recorded and now the party is in negative territory.

We are aware as well that huge leads like the 41% that the Tories had here at GE2019 can sometimes be at risk. That requires not just a change in the national polling position but evidence of a very serious effort by at least one party to try to win. My info is that the LDs are working very hard in North Shropshire but is there any evidence that a similar effort is being pursued by Labour in Bexley? I do not know and the election takes place a week on Thursday.

We also don’t yet have a picture of the efforts by the Tories to defend the seat.

Meanwhile, Smarkets have now got a range of Bexley bets up including one on whether Richard Tice will save his deposit – getting 5% plus and a whole range of options on the Tories.

Any info would be most welcome?

Mike Smithson

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