An axiom I believe in is that success equals performance minus anticipation, based on this polling the public expect some new restrictions to be brought in for the Christmas period. I’m a bit more optimistic because of our vaccine rollout and booster strategy has generally been pretty good, which should negate the need for any restrictions.
The contrast with Europe’s looming Covid-19 should provide a good contrast for the UK government. Over the last twenty months the polling in this UK has tracked how well or badly the government has dealt with Covid-19, so if things go well for the government then I’d expect a polling boost for the PM and the government. Which may enable him to see off future rebellions.
The only way I see new restrictions being introduced by Boris Johnson is if we have a new vaccine resistant, flesh eating Covid-19 variant.