Now there’s talk of a confidence move against BJ

Now there’s talk of a confidence move against BJ

The PM really needs good CON by-election wins

It was bound to happen at some point with BJ as with all CON leaders – talk of a no confidence move. I am sure we all know the procedure by now. 15% of the Parliamentary party – 54 MPs – have to send letters to the Chair of the 1992 Committee, Sir Graham Brady, requesting such a vote. Once that total is reached there is a secret ballot of MPs and the leader is out if he/she doesn’t get a majority against.

The upside for the leader is that if he/she survives a vote then there cannot be another challenge for a year.

There’s little doubt that the past few weeks have been the worst for BJ since he got the job in July last year and that is shown in his personal poll ratings which across the board are under water.

For most CON MPs the biggest thing they look to in the leader is that he/she is being an election winner. They don’t want to lose their seats at a general election.

All this comes ahead of two critical Tory defences in Parliamentary by-elections – Old Bexley and Sidcup a week tomorrow and then Shropshire North a fortnight later. In the former, his party had a majority of 41.1% at GE2019 while in the latter it was 40.6%. So, on the face of it, huge margins. and the expectation are that these will see clear victories. Anything less could be troublesome for BJ.

For those with memories of the Thatcher years it will be recalled that the killer for her was losing the Eastbourne by-election in mid-October 1990. She was gone a few weeks later.

Mike Smithson

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