The pressure mounts with 3 days to go
The message from the betting markets is that punters are staying with the Tories to hold onto Old Bexley and Sidcup in the first of the party’s two December by-election defences.
As can be seen from the Smarkets chart BJ’s party is currently rated at a near 92% chance on the betting exchange.
On the ground the word is that the Tories are taking nothing for granted and top figures, including the PM himself, are reported to have been out there working to ensure that the seat remains in blue hands. Labour though and the Reform Party are throwing a lot at the campaign.
This election comes after a bruising time for the Tories with the reverberations of the so-called sleaze scandal which has seen the party being overtaken by LAB in several national polls.
The Reform Party leader, ex-UKIP MEP Richard Tice is working hard but the LDs are more focused on Shropshire North which takes place a fortnight on Thursday.
Funny things can happen in by-elections especially when governing parties are falling in the national polls and I have a small bet at 25/1 that the Tories will lose both. This is not a prediction but my view that this is a value bet.
The Tories were odds-on favourites in the last two by-elections and did not win.