It’s surely less than a 74% chance that the CON will win both?
Punters overstating the Tories again?
One thing we learned about betting on recent by-elections is that punters overstate Tory chances. Heaven knows why I was allowed to bet several hundred pounds on the exchanges at an effective 20/1 that the LDs would win Chesham and Amersham. Some gamblers took a big hit there.
We saw a similar pattern with Batley and Spen though admittedly the outcome was a lot closer.
Now we have got the December by-elections and with the Tories rated a 92% betting chance in Old Bexley and a 74% one in North Shropshire. In the latter hundreds of LD activists are flooding in by the day and the party has an impressive record of success when it goes full gas.
I have too little information about Bexley but we do know that both Labour and the Reform party are throwing an enormous amount at this contest and the latter has the potential to siphon off many Tory votes. We also know that BJ himself is a big issue on the doorstep and the Tories are far down in the polls.