Whenever the LDs have issued data like this they’ve won
The data in the above Tweet was sent out in a “confidential” email to members and inevitably it has leaked which probably was the intention! I am told that this is accurate information based on the canvassing returns so far in the December 16th by-election.
The campaign aim is to persuade Labour and Green supporters to switch their votes to the LDs. It is also to persuade activists not to take their foot off the gas and to potential voters to actually do so.
What helps the LDs here is that one of the things that seem to have been abandoned by the pollsters is by-election polling. It used to be that at almost every high profile by-election there would be at least one proper poll. These, it should be noted, are very expensive and difficult for pollsters to mount because of the need to get a sufficiently large and balanced sample. Few media outlets have the budgets to pay for these nowadays.
This has created an opening for the LDs to issue their own data based on canvassing something that was first seen at Richmond Park in December 2016. It is worth stating that in the three by-elections where data like this has been put into the public domain the party has gained the seat from the Tories.
Mike Smithson