And Tice barely has an impact

So a very comfortable night for the Tories easily holding on in the second Tory by-election defence of this parliament. This is the first hold for the party since Sleaford and North Hykeham almost exactly five years ago.

Sure there has been a 10.2% CON to LAB swing on the GE2019 but this election has taken place mid-term during the worst spell of the BJ premiership when you would have thought the party could have been more vulnerable. Labour also had the LDs just running a token campaign which should have made it easier to make progress.

I grossly over-estimated the impact of Tice’s Reform party though my bet on it holding its deposit was a winner.

And so we move on to Shropshire North on December 16th where the LDs appear to have been throwing everything at a seat which was 59.46% Leave and where they were 52.7% behind the Tories at GE2019. Punters currently rate their chances at 2/1.

A good indicator of the outcome is how often the leader goes there. If it looks promising for his party expect more Davey visits.

Mike Smithson