Following her reappointment as Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper became the third or fourth favourite with a few bookies to succeed Sir Keir Starmer as next Labour leader. I’m not keen to back her, in fact I’m a layer in this market.

One reason for me is that Yvette Cooper put in a nondescript performance when she was Shadow Home Secretary for nearly five years between 2011 and 2015, then as Shakira sang, HIPS Don’t Lie, then there’s her constituency all contribute to my position.

As we can see from the 2019 result Normanton, Pontefract, and Castleford is another Hartlepool, a Red Wall seat that should have flipped to the Conservatives but Nigel Farage’s intervention helped Labour. With boundary changes and/or no Brexit Party candidate it isn’t hard to see this seat flipping to the Conservatives. I’ve repeatedly said the midterm polling the Conservatives are currently experiencing is pretty good for them based on previous midterm polling.

I think Sir Keir Starmer is safe as leader this side of a general election so if Cooper loses her seat she can’t replace him, and even if she wins her seat I suspect Labour will choose a leader a generation below Cooper. She’s a clear lay in this market in my humble opinion.

TSE