How much of the GRN vote will LAB get at the election itself?
Above are the latest Westminster voting and as can be seen one of the big trends in recent months has been some very good polling numbers for the Greens. The party got, let’s remember, just 2.7% of the GB vote at GE2019. YouGov, in particular, has them at triple their GE2019 share.
Given that one of the features of the past two general elections is that more than half of those saying GRN six months beforehand actually went LAB then I’d argue that we should assume that a similar thing could happen next time.
It is almost as though saying GRN at the moment is a form of being anti-government but not quite backing the official opposition.
My working assumption at the moment is to add between a third and half of the latest GRN polling shares to LAB and that puts SKS’s party in a very different position.
We have first past the post and this tends to make people focus more clearly on the best way of using their vote in their constituency as we get close to the election itself.
Note- we are having issues with Vanilla which means the commenting system is down. Hopefully, this will soon be restored