Based on almost all the the by-election betting in the past year the betting markets have not been good prediction tools. These are wise words from Paul of the Poiticalgambler blog
I will say it again. There really is nothing quite like a British by-election! The speculation and rumours are made for betting drama and the experts are frequently wrong..Remember Chesham and Amersham, where the Tories were [1.1] before losing by a 20% margin? Or Batley and Spen, where they were [1.25] before Labour held the seat? Throughout the years, we have come to expect such betting chaos.What’s the explanation? Polling firms rarely survey these contests, leaving us reliant on party propaganda and rumours. The dynamics are completely different to general elections. Voters are happier to register a mid-term protest. Turnout is often low and motivation highly differential.
Remember Chesham and Amersham where I was 95% certain from the start that this would be an LD victory – yet almost throughout the campaign you could have got 18/1 to 20/1 on the Lib Dems. This proved to be my biggest political betting gamble win ever.
I have had no such feelings about North Shropshire but I regard the 4/1 and 5/1 bets I have on the LDs as being value. This could go either way. What we do know is that the LDs have been throwing everything at this contest and at the weekend were reported as having 500 campaigners on the ground. Whether this will be enough I don’t know. Historically this has been a Tory stronghold.
I have cashed in a bit of my betting position to ensure that I do not come out a loser.
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