A big day for the LDs and the PM

A big day for the LDs and the PM

Tomorrow Johnson’s job could be at risk

In the early hours of tomorrow morning, we should get the North Shropshire result – a by-election that has taken on a huge significance with the PM’s job possibly being on the line if this is not a CON hold.

In the clip above veteran by-election watcher, Michael Crick, presses the Tory candidate who seems very reluctant to answer direct questions on the PM’s integrity.

If, and it is a very big if, the LDs do it overnight then standby for lots of media speculation about the future of the PM. Let us remind ourselves that the Tories are defending a wapping 41% majority here and this seat is so unlike Chesham and Amersham which went to the LDs last June. The latter could be explained by it being a Remain seat in outer London. North Shropshire, by contrast, is a largely agricultural seat that voted Leave and has limited transport links to the capital.

Increasingly during what admittedly has been a very challenging period for Johnson the PM himself has become an issue. A loss here could be the trigger for a move to oust the incumbent of Number 10.

My view is that if the LDs do take it then Johnson won’t survive 2022 and I have bet on that accordingly.

Mike Smithson

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