The pre-Xmas polls won’t help Johnson’s survival chances
This morning we have had three national voting polls which are featured in the Wikipedia table above.
As can be seen, the Tories have slipped with YouGov having the party on 30% which is almost 15% down on GE2019. Focaldata and Redfield have the party a touch higher but LAB is clearly ahead. No doubt Tory MPs will be feeding the numbers into Electoral Calculus to see if their seats are safe.
By my reckoning, if the next election followed these polls then on a uniform swing 130+ current CON MPs would lose.
The danger for Johnson if he wants to hang on is that it only takes 54 Tory MPs to write letters demanding a confidence vote. If that went against him by a simple majority he would be out and barred from competing in the subsequent leadership contest.
The only plus for the PM is that if the confidence motion went Johnson’s way then there could be no further challenge for 12 months.
My own view is that he will go of his own accord if things continue to look black.