What do the Tories do now the LDs have got their mojo back?
LAB voters are now more likely to vote tactically
One of the big political developments of 2021 has been the re-emergence of the LDs as an electoral force. Winning Chesham and Amersham in June always looked like an easier task given the party started in second place, C&A voted Remain and it was in striking distance of party strongholds on the M25 making it easier for them to flood the seat with activists during the campaign.
North Shropshire was a totally different proposition. At GE2019 they were more than 50% below the Tories in third place, the seat was strong Leave and quite hard for activists to reach.
As a Lib Dem myself I was always pessimistic about the party’s chances because North Shropshire did not meet any of my criteria for Lib Dem gains particularly when starting from third place,
Yet they did not just win it they took it on a CON-LD swing of 33% with a lead over the Tories of nearly six thousand votes.
Of course, this election took place at a terrible time for the Tories with all the revelations that we saw in the weeks before Christmas.
Although it didn’t matter much to the final result a big factor is how many GE2019 LAB voters were ready to vote tactically for the party that had been so derided following the 2010 Coalition with Tories. The LAB vote went down 12.4% to 9.7%.
This could have big implications for the general election – there are many constituencies where that level of anti-CON tactical voting could be decisive.