2021 was a great year for Westminster by-elections with five contests taking place in England and three of them resulting in the incumbent party being defeated. In overall terms the Tories and LAB have come out with one fewer seat each while the LDs have gained two.

Arguably the most significant result was not one of the seats to have changed hands but Labour’s successful defence, by a small margin, of Batley and Spen. Given that they’d lost Hartlepool to the Tories two months earlier then a further failure in B&S would have put immense pressure on Starmer’s leadership.

The party wasn’t helped by ex-LAB and RESPECT MP, George Galloway, putting his hat into the ring – a move that could easily have made a Tory victory much easier. This is how the top five finished:

This was a totally avoidable by-election because the vacancy was created by the sitting Labour MP resigning after being elected Mayor of West Yorkshire. She should not have been allowed to stand for the Mayoral post. It was also a by-election that punters got totally wrong as can be seen from the betting chart above.

There is a tendency in current political betting for punters to overstate Tory chances.

Mike Smithson