As regular readers will know, I’m very much a disciple of Philip Tetlock and his Superforecasting approach. Forecasting is hard, and human beings are bad at it. But we can get better and more clear-eyed about the future by following a proper approach.

If you read Superforecasting, Tetlock’s book, news articles he’s contributed to, or listen to the numerous podcast appearances he has made, you cannot fail to note his #1 rule of becoming a better forecaster: Keep score. By being honest and transparent with our track record we have a better chance of learning from our mistakes and recognising our biases.

In that spirit: Here are the tips I’ve made this year and how they’ve gone, with a bit of commentary along with it:

Date	Tip	Outcome/Comments
29/03/21	Biden to be re-nominated: 2/1 or longer	Odds roughly the same now. I still think this is a great bet.
27/06/21	Labour to outpoll Galloway in Batley & Spen: 1/4	Won, but I was pretty wrong about Galloway’s vote share and just got lucky.
10/07/21	Truss for next Tory Leader: 15/1	Now 3/1
17/07/21	Lay Dina Asher Smith for SpoTY at 8/1	Won. She got injured at Tokyo and was never ultimately in contention even before Raducanu’s ‘Fairytale of New York’.
24/07/21	USA under 111 medals: 1/1	Lost, though I did recognise my error in the following article well before the bet failed.
07/08/21	Biden to serve full term: 3/5	Bizarrely these odds are also still unchanged and I think they are huge value.
14/08/21	Keir to survive to 2024: 5/4	This is looking pretty safe for now!
21/08/21	Biden approval after 1 year (20 Jan 22) under 0%: 3/1	Pretty much nailed on.
24/08/21	SPD most seats in Germany: 8/1	Won, and possibly my bet of the year.
04/09/21	Newsom to survive recall: 2/7	Won
11/09/21	Abbott re-elected in Texas 2022: 2/5	Now 1/7
18/09/21	No new Covid restrictions in 2021: 7/4	Lost, and while I complained about the way Smarkets ‘clarified’ the rules after I wagered it wouldn’t in the end have mattered.
02/10/21	French Presidential: Le Pen @ 8/1 Macron @ 4/5 Lay Zemmour 8/1	So far: Now 13/1 Now 3/5 Now 16/1
09/10/21	Johnson to fight the next election: 1/2	Currently 6/4, which I think is good value but obviously my initial bet isn’t looking smart.
30/10/21	Virginia Governor, Dem Hold: 4/6	He lost
05/11/21	GOP to win: The House @ 4/11 The Senate @ 4/6	So far: Now 2/11 Now 4/11
13/11/21	No by-election for Geoffrey Cox before May 2022: 1/3	Pretty much nailed on.
19/11/21	Tories to hold North Shropshire: 2/5 Lib Dems to beat Labour: 1/5	The Tories lost, but the Lib Dems certainly beat Labour!
27/11/21	Labour hold South Yorkshire Mayoral 2022: 2/5	Now 1/8, though liquidity was low as commentors noted.
03/12/21	French Presidential: Macron @ 1/2 Le Pen @ 8/1 Lay Zemmour @ 8/1 Le Pen 2nd Round @ 1/2	So far: Now 3/5 Now 13/1 Now 16/1 Now 11/10 Pecresse is doing well but might be fading from her post-primary bounce. We’ll see.
10/12/21	Tories to hold North Shropshire @ 7/4	Clearly my miss of the year, doubling down on this. Though I did state this time that it was fluid and I’d keep the stakes low.
18/12/21	Raab not to be elected at next GE: 11/10	Now 4/5

Overall, I’m extremely pleased with the year. Indeed, I’ve clearly been a bit lucky at times and I’ll say upfront that I don’t expect to have as good a hit rate in 2022. My biggest consistent error was being too stubborn, refusing to recognise in Virginia and North Shropshire that the fundamentals were being overtaken by the campaign dynamics and making exactly the same mistake twice.

I’ll be back with new tips once 2022 gets going properly next week. I hope you all had a profitable 2021, and may the odds be ever in your favour!

Pip Moss posts on Political Betting as Quincel. You can follow him on Twitter at @PipsFunFacts