The betting exchange Smarkets is planning a new market on whether Rishi Sunak will still be Chancellor at the end of the year.
I like this a lot because of there are just so many possibilities about what will happen politically in the next 12-month which could affect this.
As we saw in the recent named leader polling from Opinium Sunak is by far and away the most popular member of the of Cabinet when those sampled were asked to say how they would vote with a range of named senior Tories as PM.
Sunak beat the party’s currennt poll position, Johnson, Truss and Gove by clear margins and what better data could there be for him to use in a leadership election.
But there is no vacancy for Tory leader at the moment and it is hard to see Johnson moving on voluntarily or sacking his most popular cabinet member.
Things could happen and move very quickly maybe be triggered by a very poor performance by the Tories in the May local elections only four months off. Whatever my bet would be on Sunak staying in post.