Those of us who had to go through several hoops to get paid out on the Theresa May exit date as Tory leader markets are understandably wary about exit date markets unless the terms are explicitly laid out, fortunately this market from Smarkets make the terms explicitly clear.
In this market I’m backing No, I can get a 25% return in just over a fortnight, I cannot see Boris Johnson standing down voluntarily, even if much worse stories emerge about him and his staff. Having spent his entire life wanting to be Prime Minister he won’t go unless it is in his personal interest to do so, I cannot see him going before he’s outdone the Prime Ministerial tentures of Gordon Brown and Theresa May.
If a traditional bookie was offering 1/4 on Boris Johnson to not announce his intention to stand down in January (or actually leave office) we’d call that a huge rick and they could argue it was a palpable error, but since this is on Smarkets, backing No looks like a steal.
NOTE The PB gathering planned for Feb 3rd has been postponed until March. More details to follow