The next Westminster by-election is for the vacancy created by the murder on October 15th of the sitting MP, Devid AMess. Following the precedent set after the killing of Jo Cox in 2016 Labour, the LDs and the Greens have not put up candidates so on the face of it this should be a certain CON hold.
But given the collapse of the Tories in the polls in recent weeks and the party’s poor record defending by-elections could there just be a possible shock in store? Who will anti-Tory voters back?
On paper UKIP’s candidate looks the strongest. He’s the party’s immigration spokesman Steve Laws. This issue could have a fair amount of resonance given that the seat is not far away from the beaches where some of the small boats have come ashore.
The Tories could struggle to get their voters out as we saw in Shropshire North where the party’s vote share dropped from 62.7% to 31.6%.
I cannot see any betting markets up yet. The election is a week on Thursday.
UPDATE Smarkets now have a market up on the Southend West Tory vote share. I am on below 50% at 5.3