There is little doubt is that whether Johnson will face an early VONC is going to dominate UK politics until it actually happens if that is indeed the case.

He’s hanging on by a thread at the moment and Team Sunak is reported to be all ready to fight an early leadership campaign.

The big fear that those Conservative MPs opposed to Johnson have is that a vote could be called and end up like the one on Theresa May in 2019 which she won. The rules state that in that situation the incumbent who has successfully beaten off the challenge can go for a year before another vote of no confidence can be moved.

What those opposed to Johnson need to have is real evidence that sticking with the incumbent would cost the party dear. That is something we could have had overnight from Southend West if we didn’t have the recent convention that the main parties stand aside in a by-election when the incumbent has been murdered.

That was not in place in 1990 following the murder of Eastbourne MP Ian Gow. The LDs won the by-election in October and that reinforced doubts about Mrs. Thatcher’s post-poll tax electoral appeal. She was out the following month.

Mike Smithson