The next election: CON winning most seats & votes but Starmer PM?
How punters currently see the next general election
Currently, according to the betting markets, there is a 73% chance that the election will take place in 2024.
The Tories winning most votes is rated as 70% chance with the betting odds on most seats at 58%.
No overall majority is seen as the 51% favourite to be the outcome with a CON majority at 36%.
As to seats it is a 33% betting chance that the Tory seat total will be in the 251-300 range.
On who will be PM after the elections Stamer is the 35% favourite with Johnson given just a 21% betting chance. On this bet I believe that both Starmer and Johnson have a better chance than the odds predict. I cannot at the moment see either leader not still being there at the general election.
The odds quotes here are the latest from Smarkets.