Sunday’s French election is getting very tight
One of the things about the French presidential election system is that polling can have a big impact on what actually happens. On Sunday12 contenders for the presidency are whittled down to the final two in the second round two Sundays later.
All the signs are that the 2022 race will be the same as the 2017 one with the final two being Emmanuel Macron and Marie Le Pen. The big difference compared with last time is that Macron is nowhere near as dominant as he was as can be seen in the table of theoretical runoffs in the panel above.
This is how the first round polling is looking:
It will be noted that Melenchon is getting pretty close to Le Pen and might be a good final 2 bet at 15/1. Le Pen is under pressure from Zemmour for the right wing vote and he might be worth a final 2 bet as well.