The big UK political betting story in recent weeks has been the decline of Sunak In the next prime minister market. Starmer now has a clear lead and the gap is getting wider.
Above though is a chart showing the next CON leader betting which has an even greater fall-off in betting support for the Chancellor who is coming under fire at the moment for his wife’s Russian links.
My guess is that there won’t be a change in CON leadership before the next election and there will only then be a contest if Johnson has to leave Number 10. My other guess is that in that context those who have prospered under Johnson will not do very well. The next party leader will probably not have served as a minister with the possible exception of Wallace.
Tugendhat, Hunt and Mordaunt are, I suggest, the ones to watch and I have each of them at very long odds.
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