How will the BoJo exit betting look after the May locals?
So Johnson and others in Downing Street appear to have survived being fined for not following the strict regime that they set up to fight COVID and punters make it almost an evens chance he’ll make it through to 2024 as PM.
Looking at other potential hurdles that the PM has to surmount if he is to stay in his job the next one is set to be the period after this year’s local elections. These take place just three weeks tomorrow on May 5th with the full results mostly available by the end of the Friday.
All the indications are that the Tories are going to do badly and the big question is just how badly. One of the things that it’s not generally appreciated is how much of the work of local party organisations Is focused on winning and holding council seats rather than the parliamentary constituency. Too many longstanding CON councillors being defeated this year won’t be good news for Number 10 and that could just be a trigger for Tory MPs.
In many of the big authorities nowadays being a councilor also brings with it a reasonably good regular income – something that can be put in jeopardy if the seat is lost. A common practice in many areas is for the elected councilors to give part of this income to the local party machines and this can be a key source of funding.
Because local elections have much lower turnouts than the general election local organisation is a key factor and if local volunteers feel demotivated then they could do less delivery and canvassing which might just impact on the results.
If the PM starts being seen as a vote loser not a vote winner then he could be in trouble.
As I have been saying for months though I believe both Johnson and Starmer will survive at least to the general election.