Worrying by-election pointers for Tories ahead of May 5th
What we know from past experience is that local by-elections in the run-up to the main May local elections can give a reasonably good indicator about what might happen
If this is indeed the case on May 5th then the results overnight were particularly worrying for the Tories who saw losses to LAB, the LDs and IND.
One of the things that makes local elections so challenging is that turnouts are low and local party machines that can get energise activists are able to see a good return. The impression at the moment is that the Tories are struggling to get supporters out on the streets delivering and knocking on doors.
A really bad set of results on May 5th could add to the pressure on Johnson.