I really love this betting chart on Johnson’s exit date which gives a snapshot of how those like me who bet on politics view his survival chances and are prepared to risk money backing their views up.
For long periods the chances of him surviving the year have looked unlikely but judging by the latest movement punters now make him carrying on until 2024 or later the favourite.
It was always said when things looked very bad for the PM in January that this year’s local elections next Thursday would be the crucial point and Tory MPs who want him gone convinced themselves that then was not the time to act. My view at the time was that they had missed their best opportunity and would regret not pressing for a confidence vote then.
The aftermath of next week’s elections could be a critical period but I’m not persuaded that enough Tory MPs have the nerve to do it however bad the elections are for the Tories.