LAB to gain Wandsworth but fail to take Westminster
Latest betting on Thursday’s local elections
Almost since I began running PB in 2004 the two councils that have dominated discussion of the London local elections have been Wandsworth and Westminster and as can be seen punters on the Smarkets exchange think that LAB will take the former but fail in the latter.
Overall there is a 92% chance according to the betting that LAB will come out on top on the BBC’s National Equivalent Vote share. There are markets on many of the other local councils.
From all we can gather it looks as though the Tories will have a bad night simply because existing supporters appear to be reluctant to turn out to vote.
For Labour I think the turnout factor could hurt the main opposition party. I am expecting the LDs, the Greens and the growing segment of other local parties to be the main beneficiaries.
There will be a lot of post-election examination of the voting in councils that form part of what has become known as the Northern Wall seats where the Corbyn’-led Labour party did very badly at GE2019.
We must remember that although there are elections in Wales, Scotland and London no elections are taking place in large parts of England.