Moves against abortion could help the Dems in the midterms
By far the biggest political development in the United States in the last few days has been the leak of an opinion by one of the justices of the Supreme Court which looks as though US abortion lights laid down more than half a century ago in the case of Roe v Wade could be limited.
This comes just 6 months before November’s midterm elections when the Republicans were hoping to make big gains taking back control of the Senate and the House.
The big question is whether the issue is one which will help the Democrats in the election given that their position on this is more supportive than the Republicans. These elections traditionally have much lower turnouts than presidential elections and if a significant segment of the electorate becomes more likely to vote because of an issue like that then it could have an impact.
Women are generally more pro-Democrat than Republican. This is from the commentary from Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
In a forthcoming analysis of voters based on their 2022 voting intentions, we found that “Preventing women from losing access to safe and legal abortion services” emerges as one of the stronger issues for motivating Democratic base and swing voters to get to the polls in 2022 and potentially persuading Republican-leaning voters near the Democratic vs. Republican dividing line to shift their voting intentions to the other side from their present leanings. However, the data also suggest that abortion is more powerful in motivating Democrats than persuading Republican swing voters.