A UK recession in 2022?
I’m not keen on this betting market from Smarkets, despite the grim news from Andrew Bailey and the Bank of England earlier on this week.
The Bank of England has warned that Britain is on the brink of a recession as the country is battered by a cost of living crisis that has sent inflation surging to a 40-year high.
Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s Governor, said that sharply rising energy prices will inflict “hardship” on millions of consumers as it increased interest rates to 1pc, their highest level since 2009.
In a bleak economic forecast as voters went to the polls for local elections, the Bank predicted that inflation would surge above 10pc later this year, its highest since 1981, while the economy will shrink in 2023 following a downturn beginning in the final three months of this year.
The Bank is predicting the second-largest hit to disposable real incomes since records began in 1964, beaten only by 2011 as the global financial system was racked by crisis.
I’m not keen on betting this market simply because I think if we do have a recession it’ll happen in 2023 rather than 2022. One guaranteed bet I’m going to (continue to) make is laying a 2023 election.
Only the heir to the throne of the kingdom of idiots would contemplate holding a general election during such a poor economic climate.