At the start of 2022 I never expected to be writing a thread on a betting market on Sir Keir Starmer getting a penalty notice for breaking Covid-19 regulations, quite frankly Starmer seems a bit vanilla and boring to be breaking any rules but thanks to Smarkets you can bet on this market.

That Starmer finds himself in this position represents quite the existential threat for him given the way he has rightly pilloried Boris Johnson for his parties in Downing Street during the various lockdowns. Today’s Sunday Times make it likely in my humble opinion that Starmer will be fined.

This weekend a source who was present at the gathering and is willing to help police with their inquiries, cast fresh doubt on the Labour leader’s version of events https://t.co/GUxN3tFHj6

— The Sunday Times (@thesundaytimes) May 7, 2022

My expectation is that Starmer would stand down if he was fined which would put the Prime Minister in a bind, the contrast in him and Starmer would make it impossible for the PM to continue.

As for betting on this market, I’m going to stay out of it and back other proxy markets such as Starmer’s exit date and next Labour leader. Quite a few successors to Starmer are also at risk of getting fined. So it might be someone who wasn’t at this event in Durham, bet accordingly.

TSE