Starmer can become PM without LAB making a single gain
One of the features of the next general election is that the seat targets for Labour and Tories will be totally different because Johnson’s party would find it very hard to form a coalition in the event of falling below the 325 seats required for a majority.
One of the challenges for LAB is that since the loss of Scotland at GE2015 it is very difficult to see how Starmer’s party can achieve a majority. Last time they came out with 202 MPs which was 123 short of the required total.
The big plus is that it is easy to envisage a LAB-led minority government because about all the non-CON MPs elected would not hinder a Starmer government if the alternative was a Johnson/CON one. Because of this the seat target for LAB to get into government is far lower than for the Tories. In fact, Starmer could become PM even if the Tories won most votes and most seats.
Looking at the numbers and taking into account the ongoing SF ban on taking up seats the Tories would likely lose power if the other parties made gains from the Tories of 46-47 seats or more.
In fact harking back to last week’s locals and the success of the LDs in the so-called Blue Wall then LAB could possibly return to government even if their seat total remained static. All they need to happen is for the Tories to lose 46-47 seats to other parties and theoretically Starmer could become PM even if his party made zero gains.