Even Johnson would lose his seat
With all the focus at Westminster being on whether Johnson will face a confidence vote amongst CON MPs there’s gloomy news for him this morning from YouGov which has its latest MRP survey out. This shows the party losing 85 out of 88 key marginals.
This is how YouGov’s Patrick ‘English describes it:
The Conservative party faces the prospect of largescale losses in Con-Lab battlegrounds up and down England and Wales, according to YouGov’s latest MRP model. From the 88 constituencies which the Conservatives either (a) won from Labour in 2019, or (b) currently hold with a majority of less than 15pts over Labour, our modelling predicts that just three would remain in Conservative hands: Ashfield, Bassetlaw, and Dudley North. Other high profile ‘Red Wall’ Conservative gains from 2019 would fall straight back into Labour hands if an election were held tomorrow, including Burnley, Blyth Valley, Leigh, and Stoke-on-Trent North. Other constituencies sit on an absolute knife edge, with Labour’s predicted winning margin in each of Bishop Auckland, Scunthorpe, and Great Grimsby all less than two points. Elsewhere, Boris Johnson’s seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip would likely fall into Labour hands, with current results suggesting a 5pt Labour lead in the constituency.
The full list of seats with the YouGov projection can be found here. The firm interviewed over 15,045 voters across England between 19-27 May, and 2,086 voters in Wales between 28 April and 27 May. YouGov points out that the “Constituency-level forecasts were estimated using the same method which correctly predicted the 2017 and 2019 general elections. “
The focus is entirely on CON-LAB marginals and does not include those seats where the LDs have been progressing well and which are being tagged “The Blue Wall”.
Inevitably polling like this is going to point to big losses given the Tories are down from a 12% GB vote lead at GE2019 to trailing by 8% in the latest YouGov survey. That is a CON to LAB swing of 10%.
The big question is whether the party under Johnson can recover.