The Tories look set to lose both June 23rd by-elections

The Tories look set to lose both June 23rd by-elections

At least one PBer, surely, will know when the last time that the Tory party lost two Westminster by elections on the same day.

If the Smarkets betting above is correct two CON losses look like a near certainty barring a major upheaval in UK politics. All the signs are that LAB will take back Wakefield which was lost at GE2019.

A Honiton and Tiverton the LDs have been very tight odds-on punts – a situation that hasn’t changed since the market was opened. This is in spite of Davey’s party starting in third place at GE2019 a whopping 45% behind the Tory.

It is a tribute to the party’s big victories last year in Chesham and Amersham and then Shropshire N that the markets have made the party such a strong favourite.

Unusually for me I don’t have a bet on because I’m nervous about a big punt at such tight odds with three weeks to go.

Because CON losses are seen as such a likely outcome this will have far less impact than you would expect.

Mike Smithson

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