Inevitably the main betting interest at the moment continues to be whether Boris Johnson is going to survive. Currently on Smarkets punters make it an 80% chance that he will face a VONC amongst Tory MPs in 2022.
But the money is going by 60% to 40% on him surviving such a vote.
That, I believe, could look different if both the June 23rd by-elections result in Tory losses as seems likely at the moment.
The biggest driving force in any move to oust a sitting PM is whether MPs think their chances of retaining their seats in a general election would be enhanced or not. It is here where Johnson’s growing negative leader ratings could become a factor but real results from three two Tory holds at GE2019 will likely be more influential.