Punters think there will be a Johnson VONC but he’ll win it
Inevitably the main betting interest at the moment continues to be whether Boris Johnson is going to survive. Currently on Smarkets punters make it an 80% chance that he will face a VONC amongst Tory MPs in 2022.
But the money is going by 60% to 40% on him surviving such a vote.
That, I believe, could look different if both the June 23rd by-elections result in Tory losses as seems likely at the moment.
The biggest driving force in any move to oust a sitting PM is whether MPs think their chances of retaining their seats in a general election would be enhanced or not. It is here where Johnson’s growing negative leader ratings could become a factor but real results from three two Tory holds at GE2019 will likely be more influential.