But the total is his secret
There is only one UK political betting story at the moment and that is whether Johnson is going to face a vote of no confidence amongst Conservative MPs. If 54 of them send letters to Graham Brady, the 1922 Committee Chair, he will initiate the ballot at Westminster amongst the parliamentary party. If Johnson fails to win a simple majority in that secret ballot he is is out. This could all be over within 24 hours.
The moves could take place once MPs return next week or it might happen after the June 23rd by-elections. The only person who knows is Brady.
Also we must not rule out the possibility of this not happening – Brady never at any one moment having the required 54 letters. One feature of this process is that MPs can withdraw their letters at any time.
My reading of the polling is that Johnson has been severely damaged by “partygate” and I am beginning to doubt whether this is recoverable. This could drag on for months and PBers will get bored reading about Mr. Brady.