Johnson’s premiership is on a knife edge
Above is the front page of Monday’s Guardian with the UK political news that looks set to dominate the next few days. It appears we are very close to a VONC on Johnson and that could happen very quickly.
Personally I think rebel Tory MPs are being premature and would be better waiting till after the June 23rd by-elections.
The main case for the incumbent is that he claims the record of being an election winner and that would be knocked for six if both by-elections were lost on the same day – one to LAB and one to the LDs.
A big challenge is that nobody seems to be coordinating the letters going into 1922 chair Brady and we could hit the 54 letter threshold by accident.
The other big thing in Johnson’s favour is that there is no clear frontrunner for his successor.
My only current bet linked to this is the 41/1 I got on Betfair on Dominic Raab being the next PM. This is based on Johnson being ousted and not being PM while the leadership election to find his successor is underway. Raab, of course, is Deputy PM and the odds I got at the weekend look like value.